In essence, the Government’s strategy is built around a robust body of scientific evidence which shows minimising human contact—whether through lockdowns of entire populations, or simple social distancing—is the most effective means to slow the exponential growth of the pandemic. Dan Klein et. al. have estimated that if everyone decreased their daily contact with other individuals by 25%, there would be a 50% decrease in the cumulative number of cases over a 30 day period. A 75% reduction of social contact, though hard to achieve, is predicted to roll back the pandemic.

From current trends, the spread of the disease in India appears broadly in line with international trends. Even though there is some scientific speculation that India’s geo-climactic conditions may slow the spread of the disease, there is as yet no consensus on this question, prudent planning must rest on the assumption that conditions in India will evolve on the lines seen elsewhere.

The significance of the social distancing strategy rests on the simple fact that even countries with public health infrastructure far better resourced than India have simply crumbled in the face of the disease burden. Indeed, Italian doctors have advocated that countries avoid treating infected individuals in hospitals, as far as possible.

 

Pandemic policing - some of the challenges

1. Infection control within the force: Policing during pandemics brings an unprecedented challenge: keeping the force itself functioning. Because police personnel come in close contact with countless number of people, officers have to find means to maintain safe distances from potentially-infected individuals, without distancing themselves from the community.   
2. Staffing: If there is large-scale spread of the virus amongst members of the force or in their families, there could be significant drops in the available fighting strength of the force, which is already well below desirable levels.
3. Potential for disruptions in law and order: Any inability of the health care systems to cope, when the system gets overwhelmed with large scale infections etc, may result in disruptions of law and order. Availability of food and essential items is another critical area that needs continuous watch.
4. Restricting public access to police stations / police offices or scanning body temperatures of visitors etc may become problematic. Aggressive policing measures like in China are not an option.
5. With the mounting number of deaths, a different kind of policing challenge has been reported in some countries. In the absence of adequate testing capacities, the hospitals are unable to directly attribute some of the deaths to Covid19.  Thus, the police are required to investigate and certify that a sudden death is not suspicious. The capacity of police to be able to conduct any meaningful investigations in such times could get seriously impaired.
6. Our overcrowded prisons will pose another serious challenge.  When the outbreak hits prisons, there will be no option but to release the prisoners, or perpetrate unimaginable judicial injustice, especially in the case of undertrials.
7. Increasing infections and mortality rates will inundate current capacity of the police to discharge its core responsibilities.
8. If the medical and policing services of the first world countries have been swamped in a matter of days, the situation in India, with its limited resources, is likely to be far worse. This is the reason why our planning should take into account worst case scenarios.

 

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Some Suggested To-Dos

Create a working group of senior officers

The Working Group’s role should be to constantly monitor the situation within the state or district, and promote situational awareness among all stakeholders. The Working Group must ensure seamless communication, coordination and liaison with emergency services, hospitals, the Ministry or Department of  Health and other relevant wings of the administration. It must also continuously monitor the health of police personnel and keep a watch on infections within the force. Finally, the Working Group must support the police leadership in resources planning, in terms of HR, food, medicines, PPEs and essential consumables, equipment and mobility. Explore possibility of enlisting volunteers and Special Police Officers, forge partnerships with other organisations and the private industry.

Prepare a detailed local-area lockdown management plan

This should include careful planning for worst-case scenarios, including civic disturbances and threats to medical and other essential services; systems to allow locked-down communities to access supplies and essential services in a disciplined manner; and measures to mitigate hardship of vulnerable sections of the community. It would be prudent to design it to cater for lockdowns that could run to several weeks. An important part of the plan will be measures to respond and quash rumours and to dispel fears.

Prepare a Police Business Continuity Plan

Each police department must have a worst-case scenario business continuity plan—ensuring the continuity of the core functions of police services, while supporting the public health services and general governance of the State. Ensuring adequate numbers of personnel fit to participate in law-enforcement duties may prove to be among the most difficult challenges in the weeks to come. The Business Continuity Plan must anticipate various levels of illness among the force, and lay out clear plans for managing these different scenarios. It must also lay out a clear protocol for ensuring the well-being of personnel and their families during the course of the pandemic

The Central Armed Police Forces will need to evolve their own Business Continuity Plans based upon their specific operational contexts.

 

The PDF of the above document can be downloaded from the link below:

https://www.policefoundationindia.org/images/resources/pdf/IPF-_Pandemic_Preparedness_Plan.pdf